In Defence of Liberty

Driven by data; ridden with liberty.

Monthly Archives: June, 2017

General Election 2017: Final Polls Analysis

One notable feature of this year’s general election was the wide spread in polling estimates. Whilst a simple average of British Polling Council member polls placed the Conservatives at 44% … Continue reading

June 24, 2017 · Leave a comment

General Election 2017: Curtice-Firth Methodology of Exit Polls

At 10pm on election day, the polls close and the broadcasters reveal what the exit poll predicted who win the election, and how many seats each party will take. An … Continue reading

June 14, 2017 · 2 Comments

General Election 2017: Youth Turnout Figures

Swiftly after polls closed, the claim that 72% of registered voters aged 18 to 24 had voted in the 2017 General Election was proliferated. My contacts are telling me that … Continue reading

June 12, 2017 · Leave a comment

General Election 2017: Seat Predictions and MRP Models

Whilst opinion polls can estimate party vote shares across Great Britain (or whatever part of the country is being surveyed), this is not a precise indicator of the number of … Continue reading

June 11, 2017 · Leave a comment

General Election 2017: Final Polls and the Exit Poll

After Prime Minister Theresa May called a general election to seek greater certainty and stability over negotiations (i.e. a larger majority), the Conservatives are now the largest party in a … Continue reading

June 10, 2017 · Leave a comment