In Defence of Liberty

Driven by data; ridden with liberty.

The YouGov Mega Poll

How did Britain really vote? (Edited: renaissancechambra)

How did Britain really vote? (Edited: renaissancechambra)

The opinion polling organisation YouGov have released their massive survey, published first by in the Prospect magazine.

This survey looks at votes in the 2015 General Election, partitioning responses of 100,000 people by age, social grade, newspaper readership and other factors.

Of those polled, 92,945 respondents had voted in this year’s election.

Using Tableau, I have created an interactive tool for readers to dissect the YouGov polling data.

Age

By age, the Conservatives demonstrated a huge lead over Labour for voters aged 60 or over.

In this category, 45% supported the Conservatives, whilst only 25% chose a Labour candidate.

Four parties (Conservatives, Labour, UKIP, Green) are selected here. (Source: YouGov; Visualisation: Tableau)

Four parties (Conservatives, Labour, UKIP, Green) are selected here. (Source: YouGov. Visualisation: Tableau)

Contrary to reports of Labour activists, such as Wiltshire South West candidate George Aylett, preferring the Conservatives to Labour was not an exclusive activity of older voters.

Mr Aylett’s claim is made based upon a ComRes aggregated survey, taken from 27th March to 30th April, and is not a post-election poll.

Higher proportions of citizens in the age brackets 30-39 and 50-59 backed the Conservatives over the social democratic Labour.

36% of younger voters, in the 18-29 category, picked Labour in the election, compared to 32% going for the centre-right Conservatives.

The two parties were indistinguishable in the 40-49 age group, taking 33% each.

UKIP and the Green Party demonstrated opposite age trends, with voting Green being trendy among young people and going for UKIP became more popular as people aged.

Social Grade

Social grades, defined by the occupation of a household’s main earner, revealed possible electoral weaknesses of the two main parties.

The five main British political parties are broken down by social grade. (Source: YouGov. Visualisation: Tableau)

The five main British political parties are broken down by social grade. (Source: YouGov. Visualisation: Tableau)

For DE voters, 37% crossed against Labour candidates in their constituencies, whilst 29% of these voters chose the Conservatives.

Among AB electors, 44% supported David Cameron’s party, and only 28% went for Ed Miliband’s alternate government.

Both parties rest upon a wide coalition within the electorate, fusing land-owners and working class conservatives for the Conservatives, or wealthy intellectuals and poorer trade unionists for Labour.

How each party manages their electoral coalition will help decide the next election.

In spite of Labour campaigners declaring UKIP to be “more Tory than the Tories”, UKIP attracted a doubling of the vote share from DE voters (18%) than AB voters (9%), inverting the Tory trend.

Newspapers

Newspapers tend to match the conceptions of their readers, and so prominent spikes in political preference are to be expected.

The Liberal Democrats did well in The Guardian and The Times. (Source: YouGov. Visualisation: Tableau)

The Liberal Democrats did well in The Guardian and The Times. (Source: YouGov. Visualisation: Tableau)

69% of The Daily Telegraph readers voted Conservative, and 67% of The Mirror readers backed Labour.

Loyalists of The Guardian overwhelming buttressed Ed Miliband’s party, with 62% of their vote share.

Just 6% of Guardian readers voted for the Conservatives.

Despite the editorial support for a continued Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, with more Liberal Democrats, a plurality (47%) of readers of The Independent fortified Labour’s vote.

From this newspaper, the Conservatives garnered 17% and the Liberal Democrats obtain 16%, so similar spoils for the two coalition partners.

The Times had a higher Conservative vote share than The Sun: 55% to 47%.

The Labour portion was higher in The Sun too: 24% to 20% in The Times.

UKIP had the express editorial support of The Express. (Source: YouGov. Visualisation: Tableau)

UKIP had the express editorial support of The Express. (Source: YouGov. Visualisation: Tableau)

UKIP gained high support from The Express and The Daily Star, with 27% and 26% of their vote shares, respectively.

Alternately, the Greens found their voters flitting through The Guardian and The Independent, with 14% and 11%.

It is worth investigating the data rather than relying on worn assumptions about voters.

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This entry was posted on June 11, 2015 by in National Politics and tagged , , , , , , .
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